Here are two arguments for determinism that often crop up.
Question: Do scientists have to believe that every event is subject to causal laws, or only that most events are subject to causal law?One of the weaknesses of these two arguments is that, while they may have appeared very convincing last century (when the fundamental laws of physics were thought to be deterministic) they look decidedly less convincing today (when the fundamental laws of physics are not generally thought to be deterministic). Last century the best theories around were Newton's physics and Maxwell's electrodynamics: both explicitly deterministic theories. According to Newton's theory, for example, the laws of motion together with the precise state of all physical particles in the universe at a particular moment determine the whole future course of all those particles.
A deterministic law involves strict causal connections between events. At their simplest they have the following form: if an event of type A occurs then it brings about an event of type B. (A simple example: heating a piece of metal causes it to expand.) An indeterministic, or probabilistic law, involves tendencies of events to occur. At their simplest they have the form: if an event of type A occurs then an event of type B has a certain probability of occurring. (A simple example: if a particle is generated by a certain process then there is a probability of 1/2 that it will be spin-up and probability 1/2 that it will be spin-down.) If the physicists are right, and the modern theory of quantum mechanics is correct, then at least some of the fundamental laws are probabilistic. There is an uncaused, or random, element in the behavior of some items in the universe.
It would follow that (a) scientists do not need to presuppose
determinism
in their search for laws, for the laws they are searching for may be
indeterministic
rather than deterministic; and (b) current science actually undermines
the thesis of determinism, because the best current theories of physics
are not deterministic. So both arguments turn out to be unsound.
Question: Even if there were indeterminism at the micro level (atomic, and subatomic particles) would that guarantee that human actions are not determined?
Since rational people deliberate at least on some occasions, and since rational people who do deliberate believe they are free to choose among the options over which they are deliberating, it follows that rational people believe they are free. So the thesis of freedom is the rational thing to believe.i Deliberation is required by rationality
Rational people deliberate. It is one of the hall marks of the rational agent that s/he deliberates about what to do.
ii Deliberation presupposes freedom
In order to deliberate about whether to perform act A or act B one is rationally obliged to suppose that one is free to choose between A and B.
iii Rationality of belief in freedom
If rational people believe in freedom it must be the rational thing to believe.
This argument is somewhat underwhelming. It is rather like
Pascal's
wager in establishing the rationality of believing we are free without
directly establishing the thesis itself. Moreover it seems that
the
term rationality may be being used in two different senses. The sense
in
which i is true involves practical rationality - the rationality of
acton.
Whereas the sense of rationality we are interested in in the conclusion
is cognitive rationality—ßthe rationality of
belief.
Combining i and ii here with thesis iii (if rational people believe in freedom it must be the rational thing to believe) from argument one, we get the same conclusion: the thesis of freedom is the rational thing to believe.i Praise and blame can be rational
We are in the habit of praising and blaming people for what they do and on some occasions at least it is rational to do so
ii Praise and blame presuppose responsibility, which in turn presupposes freedom
It would be irrational to praise or blame people unless we thought that they were actually responsible for the things we praise and blame them for. And to be responsible for what they do they must freely choose what they do.
Similar criticisms apply to this argument as apply to argument one.
How good an argument is that? People can be systematically brainwashed into believing all sorts of things which are not true, and they can be adamantly convinced that they are. We need something more than brute conviction in order to be rational.
Here is what I think is the rational kernel of the argument from introspection.
We seem to be capable of predicting, in a remarkably reliable, which actions are, and which are not, within our power. I predict that I can raise my arm, and I raise it, thereby establishing the truth of my prediction. I predict I can walk down the stairs and I do so. I do this hundreds and hundreds of times each day. Of course sometimes I make mistakes, but for the most part, certainly concerning everyday actions, I am an astonishingly good predictor of what I can and cannot do. It is not clear what the mechanism is by which I come to be convinced that something is within my power, but whatever the mechanism is it is extraordinarily reliable. It is certainly a strange kind of knowledge, and about the best we can do in describing it is to say that we have a "feeling" that some action is up to us. All I am adding to that is that this "feeling" is usually quite a reliable guide to our powers. Now, quite often I judge two incompatible actions (say, raising my arm, and not raising my arm) both to be (separately) within my power. I judge that I can now raise my arm, and also that I can now refrain from raising it. Given that such judgements of mine are the product of this extraordinarily reliable mechanism, I have very good evidence that they are correct. And if they are both correct, then I am free — some things are up to me.
The upshot of this survey of standard arguments is this. We have two weak arguments for the thesis of determinism, two weak arguments for the thesis of freedom and one quite good argument for the thesis that we are free. If we also accept the argument for incompatibilism it seems that we should now embrace libertarianism: that we are free, and our freedom requires that our actions not be determined.