Environmental Quality: An Overview

    The first (and perhaps most important) insight to gain from environmental data looked at over any lengthy period is that trends are mixed--there are instances of  improving environmental quality, deteriorating environmental quality, and situations where little change is apparent.  We shall consider the major environmental media in turn:

Air

    We will focus primarily on pollutants for which the EPA has established National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS).  The Clean Air Act (CAA) provides for two types of standards (this is irrational, incidentally!--DISCUSS the general stupidity of "hierarchies"): Primary Standards are implemented to "protect the public health, including sensitive populations such as asthmatics, children, and the elderly." Secondary Standards are established to "protect the public welfare, including animals, crops, vegetation, and buildings."  Here are the six criteria pollutants--the vast majority of all air pollution--along with their associated standards: carbon monoxide (CO--8hr 9ppm or 10mg/m3; 1hr 35ppm or 40mg/m3), lead (Pb--1.5ug/m3 maximum quarterly average), nitrogen dioxide (NO2--.053ppm or 100ug/m3 annual arithmetic mean), ozone (O3, good in stratosphere, bad at ground level--created when NOx reacts with VOCs--.12ppm or 235ug/m3 maximum daily 1-hour average), particulate matter with particle size less than 10 microns (PM-10, replacing TSP in 1987--50ug/m3 annual arithmetic mean, 150ug/m3 twenty-four hour), and sulfur dioxide (SO2--80ug/m3 annual arithmetic mean, 365ug/m3 twenty-four hour; secondary standard 1,300ug/m3 in 3-hours).  Discuss the sources and damages for the various air pollutants.
    The EPA tracks both emissions and air quality.  Emissions of the six criteria pollutants, with the exception of NO2 which increased 14% (DISCUSS why), have declined considerably from 1970-1994 (latest data).  The decrease in lead emissions is the most dramatic, at 98% reduction, but CO decreased 23%, VOCs decreased 24%, PM-10 decreased 78%,  and SOx decreased 32%.  In terms of ambient air quality (measured at some 4,000 monitoring sites for the period 1985-1994) CO decreased 28%, lead decreased 86%, NO2 decreased 9%, ozone decreased 12%, PM-10 decreased (between 1988-94) 20%, and SO2 decreased 25%.  There was, of course, progress prior to 1970 as well, both for stationary sources (primarily SO2, PM-10, VOCs) and mobile sources (NO2, CO, lead, VOCs).  Also, the 189 non-criteria chemicals referred to as "hazardous air pollutants," that are believed to potentially lead to health problems (cancer, reproductive, other) have declined by 33% between 1989 and 1993 alone.  EPA is also working currently on reductions in stratospheric ozone depleting air pollutants, and acid rain generating pollutants in addition to the proceeding.  NOTE: This progress occurred despite population growth (27%), growth in vehicle miles traveled (111%), and growth in income (90%)!  There are, however, still about 62 million Americans who live in counties that violate one or more of the standards established for the criteria pollutants (mostly, ozone violations).
    Discuss air dispersion models and their value in determining benefits and costs of control that vary greatly over space.  Policy options involving where (three dimensionally) and when (emergency options versus on-going efforts) clean-up occurs, as well as overall levels, are very relevant to non-global air pollution problems.  (Grid Figure)

Water

    We break our discussion up into ground water and surface water, each of which has unique water quality issues.  For example, recreational/ecosystem issues are not important for ground water, but are very important for surface water, while subsidence or seawater intrusion are important issues for groundwater and not for surface water.

Ground Water

    Ground water in U.S. aquifers (contiguous 48 states) is extremely important and fortunately very abundant (250 times as much ground water as surface water--this is equivalent to the water contained in 200 years of Mississippi River water flow) .  Forty percent of the public water supply (97% in rural areas) comes from groundwater.  Between 30 and 40% of the water used by the multi-billion dollar agricultural industry comes from groundwater.  The vast majority of all groundwater is unpolluted (98%?), but those areas that are polluted tend to be more important since they are usually near people.  Problems of heavy metal leaching, nitrates, toxic chemicals, fecal colliform, are among the pollution problems found.  Pollution often moves very slowly in aquifers, as little horizontally as 6" per year in some cases--implies one well might be polluted but neighboring wells may not be for many years, if ever.  Other problems include land subsidence (serious in places) and salt water incursion.

Surface Water

    Surface water in the U.S. has been generally improving for many years.  The Great Lakes are in vastly better shape than they were thirty years ago.  Eutrophication problems in lakes and streams (dredging issues, though--do you want to "stir it up?").  Navigable rivers and streams have also generally improved.  Pollutants usually considered are: BOD (a measure of pollution loading, actually), DO (dissolved oxygen--overall health measure), pH (acid rain issues--note "clean-looking" can be misleading), turbidity (analogous to "coefficient of haze" for air), ammonias, nitrites, nitrates, heavy metals, pesticide and fertilizer runoff.
    In developing countries 44% of people had access to safe drinking water in 1980, while 74% did in 1994.  (Terry Anderson in WSJ)
    Water "shortage" issues (criminal or economic issue?)--shortage of rational pricing policy, not fundamental shortage of water! (urban price elasticity is 1.2 while rural price elasticity is 2).  Only 2% of Eastern water suppliers establish water prices that vary seasonally!  And, astoundingly, 33% offer quantity discounts to users who use more water!  Eastern water laws *prohibit* people from buying and selling water--we'll come back to this as an application of the Coase Theorem.  Proper policy won't make droughts disappear, but they will greatly ease the pain they impose when they occur.
    Hydrology modeling and its policy implications: where and when again matter greatly to appropriate control of water pollution.  ("Reach" Figure).

Oceans and the World's Fisheries--a true tragedy at this time

Paraphrased from article in The Economist, March 19, 1994:
    After growing rapidly after WWII (tripling to over 60m tons in only 20 years), fishing developed more slowly in the '70s and '80s, peaking in 1989 at 86m tons.  Most now believe we have long ago exceeded sustainable landings of wild fish.  When catches of the most valuable fish in northern waters (e.g. turbot, halibut) started to fall, fleets began chasing other species that had been thrown back as "trash" only a generation before (e.g. whiting, spiny dogfish, and others).  They also fished distant waters and found massive catches of a few low-value species.  The FAO (Food and Agriculture Organisation) notes that it was these short-lived fish (e.g. Alaska pollack, Peruvian anchovetta and Japanese pilchard) that swelled the world catch in the 1980s.  The declining trends were masked because catches were measured in tons, not dollars.
    Almost all of the 200 fisheries monitored by the FAO are fully exploited.  1/3 are depleted or heavily over-exploited, almost all in the developed countries.  Although fishermen still catch relatively few of the 15,000 species of fish extant, most of the remainder are expensive to catch, unappetising, or both.
    The world's 3m or so trawlers, purse-seiners, and gill-netters are operating at an estimated $22 billion loss (1989).  New technology (cheap nylon filament, refrigeration, spotter planes and helicopters, directional sonar, and satellites) has failed to offset these losses, while speeding the declines of fishing grounds.  The rich countries' fleets have outstripped their fishing grounds' capacities by such a long way that Iceland and the European Union could cut their fleets by 40%, Norway by 2/3, and all three would still catch as much fish as they do today.  Governments have encouraged this excess by subsidizing fishing fleets, often as a form of regional aid and in response to falling catches.  Not only costly in terms of resource use, overfishing is waste on a grand scale: American fishery managers estimate that the U.S.'s catch is about half as valuable as it could be if fish stocks in federal waters were allowed to recover.  The EU has said that its waters could, if properly regulated, yield a further $2.5 billion worth of fish a year.  The FAO estimates the annual loss worldwide at $15-30 billion.
    In addition to overfishing, development and pollution are also reducing stocks.  According to Paula Brouha, director of the American Fisheries Society, 11-15m salmon once spawned in the Columbia river system.  Now there are only 3m of which 2.75m come from hatcheries.  So much of the river system has been dammed that only 250,000 salmon can find their way back to old spawning grounds.  Moreover, 3/4 of the American catch comprises species that depend upon estuaries (often as habitat for juveniles, which can safely feed in the shallows).  But pollution, filling in of lagoons and wetlands to make land, upstream water withdrawal affecting salinity, render the estuaries themselves vulnerable.
    Over-fishing and pollution rarely lead to extinction (though even this is possible for a few large, slow-growing and valuable species, such as the bluefin tuna).  And fish will remain on menus, albeit at higher prices.   Indeed, as the price climbs and biotechnology develops, the most valuable fish will increasingly be farmed.  Aquaculture yielded more than 12m tons in 1990, and is growing by more than 10% per year (fin-fish comprise 70%, shellfish 25%, and shrimp about 6%).
    Prior to 1976 most world fish stocks were open to all-comers, making conservation almost impossible.  Then, an international agreement extended some aspects of jurisdiction from 12 to 200 nautical miles offshore, creating areas now known as "exclusive economic zones."  Because most commercially attractive fish live near the shore, the agreement brought many fisheries under the control of the nearest country.  One would think that this might greatly lessen the problem of over-fishing.  The idea is that marine biologists could set quotas based on the maximum sustainable catch and managers could try to limit fishing by licensing boats, restricting fishing times, and regulating fishing gear (size of boats, nets' mesh, etc.).  These approaches are not efficient, although they may be better than current outcomes, since after 18 years of "management" the developed-country waters are in worse shape than ever.  For example:     The problem underlying the preceding numbers (and solutions currently underway) will be discussed further in class.
There are two related problems, each stemming from the "fundamental" problem ( the "missing market"--nobody is charging the scarcity value of the fish as they become more scarce).  These problems are: 1) each existing boat, as a result of the missing market, catches too much (the marginal costs are understated by the unpriced fish inputs), and 2) there are too many boats--because the missing market made the fishing industry more profitable, encouraging entry.