Keith A. Porter
Dr Porter specializes in seismic vulnerability and 2nd-generation performance-based earthquake engineering. With researchers at the CUREE-Kajima Joint Research Program, CUREE-Caltech Woodframe Project, Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research (PEER) Center, and FEMA P-58, he developed a second-generation performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE-2) methodology that measures the probabilistic performance of individual buildings in terms of dollars, deaths, and downtime. With colleagues funded by the Global Earthquake Model, he developed a methodology based on PBEE-2 and moment matching to estimate seismic vulnerability of building classes. He coordinated the estimation of physical damages for the USGS’s M7.8 Southern California earthquake scenario (more detail here), its California winter storm (“ARkStorm”) scenario (detail here), and tsunami scenario (in progress). Other current and recent research includes demand surge, seismic reliability of critical facilities, estimation of downtime in critical facilities; and a benefit-cost analysis for the US Congress and the Multihazards Mitigation Council that found FEMA-funded disaster mitigation to save $4.00 for every $1.00 spent. Dr Porter previously worked on the research faculty at the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena, California. He is a licensed Professional Engineer with experience in construction contracting (Continental Heller Corp., 1986-1987), structural design (TY Lin International, 1987-1988), and risk analysis of natural disasters (EQE International, 1990-1997). He is Principal of the international risk consulting company SPA Risk LLC (2004- ).
Beginner’s Guide, a resource for students and other newcomers to seismic risk
Porter, K.A., in progress. A Beginner’s Guide to Fragility, Vulnerability, and Risk, http://spot.colorado.edu/~porterka/Porter-beginners-guide.pdf or http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-beginners-guide.pdf
A series of research abstracts for some of Dr Porter’s recent projects can be found here, including (among others):
1. A performance-based earthquake engineering method to estimate downtime using fault trees
2. Managing the risk of earthquake-induced failure of critical facilities
3. Cost effectiveness of seismic risk mitigation
4. Cost effectiveness of woodframe retrofit
5. Vulnerability of soft-story construction
6. ATC-58 fragility and correlation
7. OpenRisk: free open-source risk software
8. ShakeOut earthquake planning scenario
Students and Postdoctoral Colleagues
Vignan Beesam, CU 2013– . Mr Beesam is writing a master’s report on the relationship between collapse fragility and collapse risk for existing buildings. He is addressing the question of whether there is a mean recurrence interval t for which the collapse probability of an existing building, conditioned on shaking with a mean recurrence interval t is numerically equal to the frequency of collapse-causing earthquakes in events per planning period T, and if so, why. He is considering the question using collapse fragility models from FEMA P-695.
David Bretl, CU 2013– . Like Mr Beesam, Mr Bretl is writing a master’s report on the relationship between collapse fragility and collapse risk for existing buildings. He is considering the question using collapse fragility models from HAZUS-MH.
Rebecca Dirksen, CU 2013– . Ms Dirksen is writing a master’s thesis on the question of how to model the correlation of damage to building components in 2nd-generation performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE-2). Since at least the early 1980s, engineers have struggled with how to treat the potential for correlated damage to building components operating in serial or parallel, especially if they are collocated and of identical design and installation conditions. Ms Dirksen is examining the use of a model of dependent Bernoulli trials to estimate the probability distribution of the number of specimens with identical fragility functions to fail when subjected to the same seismic excitation.
Daryn Hobbs, CU BS/MS 2013. Joint seismic hazard. Mr Hobbs prepared a master’s report on multihazard joint seismic hazard curves, which are actually 3-D surfaces that quantify the annual probability or frequency with which two locations will experience shaking in excess of any given pair of ground-motion intensity levels in the same earthquake. A joint seismic hazard curve is useful for estimating the probabilistic seismic risk associated with systems that rely on two facilities that operate in parallel or serial. For example, computer data centers commonly operate in tandem, sometimes with a primary and backup site, and often located in the same city or county. Proximity makes it easier to operate the backup site because the same people can operate the backup if the primary is damaged, at the cost of increased risk of simultaneous operational failure. His report is available here.
In Ho Cho, CU 2012– . Rapid estimation of seismic vulnerability for building classes using multiscale modeling. Dr Cho is CU’s 2nd Willis Research Fellow. He is developing a method to rapidly estimate the seismic vulnerability of classes of buildings. The method employs multiscale structural modeling to create physics-based structural models that rely on a few basic, observable, micro-level material properties rather than many ontologically derived parameters, i.e., parameters fit to curves of pervious laboratory tests. It also uses CU’s 184-teraflop Dell supercomputer system called Janus, currently ranked 164 among the world’s top-500 supercomputer sites.
Karim Farokhnia, CU 2010–2013. Nonstructural vulnerability functions for building categories. Mr Farokhnia received his PhD for developing an analytical method to estimate the seismic vulnerability of nonstructural building components anywhere in the world. The method is based on ATC-58 (FEMA P-58), but because the ATC-58 method is highly labor intensive and building specific, Mr Farokhnia faced four notable challenges: generalizing from simplifying the asset definition; simplifying the structural analysis; and proposing methods to deal with US consequence functions outside of the US. He accomplished this by modeling only a few high-value components and scaling up losses; offering idealized cantilever-beam SDOF models to replace MDOF structural analysis; and scaling US repair costs by local labor rates as a multiple of US labor rates. His research contributed to the Global Earthquake Model. His thesis is available here.
Elizabeth Perkins, CU 2010–2011. Quantifying effect on seismic vulnerability from important seismic features. Ms Perkins (BS Calvin College 2010 MS University of Colorado 2011) received her masters degree after completing a thesis on analytical methods to quantify the average effect of readily observable building features on the probabilistic seismic performance of categories of buildings. By “readily observable building features” is meant features of individual buildings that can be observed from the street or from space, such as vertical and plan irregularities or story height. By “categories of buildings” is meant building types characterized by material, lateral-force-resisting system, code era, etc. Ms Perkins proposed procedures to estimate such effects analytically, using PBEE-2 procedures and a sampling system that specifies a limited number of index buildings that collectively span the dimensions of the building category deemed most relevant to seismic performance, such as height, degree of plan and vertical irregularity, and frame redundancy. In principle, the procedure could be used to inform the assignment of performance modification factors in FEMA 154 and catastrophe risk models. Her thesis is available here.
Kyle Ramer, CU 2010–2011. A PBEE-2 downtime model using fault trees. Mr Ramer (MS University of Colorado 2011) received his masters degree testing an analytical method to estimate the probability distribution of the time required to restore a moderately damaged, important industrial facility to operation after an earthquake. He implemented the methodology for its first realistic case study of an actual computer data center, and compared its results to those produced using category-based ATC-13 and HAZUS-MH, as well as checking its predictions against the actual history of the data center and against the judgment of an operator of the facility. Agreement in all cases was reasonable, suggesting that the method produces credible results. His thesis is available here.
Anna Olsen, CU 2008–2011. Demand
surge. Dr Olsen (PhD Caltech 2008) was the University of Colorado’s
first Willis Research Fellow (www.willisresearchnetwork.com).
She studied demand surge, a phenomenon observed after major sudden-onset
natural disasters in which construction costs for repairs rise locally and
for some unknown period of time. Dr Olsen appears to be the first person to
develop a predictive model of demand surge based on historic repair costs in
a number of cities along the US Gulf and
Holly Bonstrom, CU 2009–2011. Risk perception and mitigation decision-making. Ms Bonstrom (MS CU 2011) has studied risk perception and factors influencing various categories of decision-makers to act to mitigate risk (their own, or society’s) for low-frequency, high-consequence natural disasters. She has created a set of guidelines for communicating risk for the purpose of informing or motivating costly risk-mitigation decisions. Her thesis is available here.
Click here for a recent curriculum vitae.
B.S., 1987, U.C. Davis (Tau Beta Pi)
M.Eng., 1990, U.C. Berkeley (UC Regents Fellow)
Ph.D., 2000, Stanford University (Haresh Shah Family Fellow, ARCS Scholar)
1. Porter, K.A., 2000, Assembly-Based Vulnerability of Buildings and its Uses in Seismic Performance Evaluation and Risk-Management Decision-Making, Doctoral Dissertation, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2001-ABV-thesis.pdf
2. Porter, K.A., 1990, Experimental Investigation of Single-Plate Shear Connectors with Short Slotted Holes, Master’s Thesis, University of California, Berkeley
Archival Journal Articles
3. Cho, I.H., and K.A. Porter, 2014 (expected). Three-stage multiscale nonlinear dynamic analysis platform for building-level loss estimation. Earthquake Spectra (accepted for publication 2 Nov 2013)
4. Cho, I.H., and K.A. Porter, 2014 (expected). Modeling building classes using moment matching. Earthquake Spectra (accepted for publication 28 Oct 2013).
5. Cho, I. and K. Porter, 2013. Structure-independent parallel platform for nonlinear analyses of general real-scale RC structures under cyclic loading. Journal of Structural Engineering, http://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/(ASCE)ST.1943-541X.0000871
6. Bonstrom, H., R. Corotis, and K. Porter, 2012. Overcoming public and political challenges for natural hazard risk investment decisions. IDRiM Journal 2 (1), 1-23, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Bonstrom-2012-IDRIM-Investment.pdf
7. Porter, K.A., and K. Ramer, 2012. Estimating earthquake-induced failure probability and downtime of critical facilities. Journal of Business Continuity & Emergency Planning, 5 (4), 352-364, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2012-JBCEP-Downtime.pdf
8. Porter, K.A., E.H. Field, and K. Milner, 2012. Trimming the UCERF2 hazard logic tree. Seismological Research Letters, 83 (5), 815-828 http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2012-SRL-Tree-trim.pdf
9. Porter, K., G. Johnson, R. Sheppard and R. Bachman, 2011. Response to discussions of fragility of mechanical, electrical and plumbing equipment. Earthquake Spectra, 27 (1), 229-233
10. Porter, K.A., K. Hudnut, S. Perry, M. Reichle, C. Scawthorn, and A. Wein, 2011. Foreword. Earthquake Spectra 27 (2), 235-237 http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2011-ShakeOut-Foreword.pdf
11. Porter, K.A., L. Jones, D.A. Cox, J. Goltz, K. Hudnut, D. Mileti, S. Perry, D. Ponti, M. Reichle, A.Z. Rose, C.R. Scawthorn, H.A. Seligson, K.I. Shoaf, J. Treiman, and A. Wein, 2011. The ShakeOut Scenario: a Hypothetical MW7.8 Earthquake on the Southern San Andreas Fault. Earthquake Spectra 27 (2), 239-261, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2011-Shakeout.pdf
12. Porter, K.A., and R. Sherrill, 2011. Utility performance panels in the ShakeOut scenario. Earthquake Spectra 27 (2), 443-458, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2011-ShakeOut-Panels.pdf
13. Olsen, A., and K.A. Porter, 2011. What we know about demand surge: a brief summary. Natural Hazards Review 12 (2), 62-71 http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Olsen-2011-NHR-WWKADS.pdf
14. Jaiswal, K., D. Wald, and K. Porter, 2010. A global building inventory for earthquake loss estimation and risk management. Earthquake Spectra 26 (3) 731-748, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Jaiswal-2010-PAGER-inventory.pdf
15. Porter, K.A., 2010. Cracking an open safe: uncertainty in HAZUS-based seismic vulnerability functions. Earthquake Spectra, 26 (3) 893-900, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2010-Safecrack-COV.pdf.
16. Porter, K.A., G. Johnson, R. Sheppard, and R.E. Bachman, 2010. Fragility of mechanical, electrical, and plumbing equipment. Earthquake Spectra, 26 (2) 451-472, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2010-MEP-fragility-1.pdf
17. Porter, K.A., 2009. Cracking an open safe: more HAZUS vulnerability functions in terms of structure-independent intensity. Earthquake Spectra, August 2009, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2009-Safecrack-MDF.pdf
18. Porter, K.A., 2009. Cracking an open safe: HAZUS vulnerability functions in terms of structure-independent spectral acceleration. Earthquake Spectra, May 2009, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2009-Safecrack-Casualty.pdf
19. Wald, D., K.W. Lin, K. Porter, and L. Turner, 2008. ShakeCast: automating and improving the use of ShakeMap for post-earthquake decision-making and response. Earthquake Spectra, 24 (2), 533-553, http://www.sparisk.com/publications.htm
20. Ching, J.Y., K.A. Porter, and J.L. Beck, 2008. Propagating uncertainties for loss estimation in performance-based earthquake engineering using moment matching. Structure and Infrastructure Engineering. Accepted 13 Aug 2006. http://www.tandf.co.uk/journals/titles/15732479.asp
22. Porter, K.A., R.P. Kennedy, and R.E. Bachman, 2007. Creating fragility functions for performance-based earthquake engineering. Earthquake Spectra, 23 (2), 471-489, http://www.sparisk.com/publications.htm
23. Rose, A., K. Porter, N. Dash, J. Bouabid, C. Huyck, J.C. Whitehead, D. Shaw, R.T. Eguchi, C. Taylor, T.R. McLane, L.T. Tobin, P.T. Ganderton, D. Godschalk, A.S. Kiremidjian, K. Tierney, and C. Taylor West. 2007. Benefit-cost analysis of FEMA hazard mitigation grants. Natural Hazards Review, 8(4), 1-15; 2007 http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Rose-2007-NHR-BCA.pdf
24. Goulet, C., C. Haselton, J. Mitrani-Reiser, J. Beck, G. Deierlein, K. Porter, and J. Stewart. 2007. Evaluation of the seismic performance of a code-conforming reinforced-concrete frame building - from seismic hazard to collapse safety and economic losses. Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics. 36 (13), 1973-1997 http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Goulet-2007-EESD-Benchmark.pdf
25. Porter, K.A., J. Mitrani-Reiser, J.L. Beck, and J.Y. Ching, 2006. Near-real-time loss estimation for instrumented buildings. The Structural Design of Tall and Special Buildings 15 (1): 3-20. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2006-SDTSP-Realtime.pdf
26. Porter, K.A., K. Shoaf, and H. Seligson, 2006. Value of injuries in the Northridge Earthquake. Earthquake Spectra, 22 (2), May 2006. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2006-VOI.pdf
27. Porter, K.A., C.R. Scawthorn, and J.L. Beck, 2006. Cost-effectiveness of stronger woodframe buildings. Earthquake Spectra 22 (1), February 2006, 239-266, http://scitation.aip.org/journals/doc/EASPEF-ft/vol_22/iss_1/239_1.html [09 Mar 2006], http://spot.colorado.edu/~porterka/Porter-2006-CWF.pdf
28. Ching, J.Y., J.L. Beck, K.A. Porter, R.V. Shaikhutdinov, 2006. Bayesian state estimation method for nonlinear systems and its application to recorded seismic response. Journal of Engineering Mechanics, April 2006.
29. Ching, J., J.L. Beck, and K.A. Porter, 2006. Bayesian state and parameter estimation of uncertain dynamical systems. Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics, 21 (2006) 81-96, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Ching-2006-PEM-Bayesian-state-estimation.pdf
30. Porter, K.A., J.L. Beck, R.V. Shaikhutdinov, S.K. Au, K. Mizukoshi, M. Miyamura, H. Ishida, T. Moroi, Y. Tsukada, and M. Masuda, 2004. Effect of seismic risk on lifetime property value. Earthquake Spectra, 20 (4), Nov 2004, 1211-1237. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2004-LPV.pdf [viewed 2 Dec 2012]
31. Porter, K.A., J.L. Beck, and R.V. Shaikhutdinov, 2004. Simplified performance-based earthquake engineering estimation of economic risk for buildings. Earthquake Spectra, 20 (4), 1239-1263, http://spot.colorado.edu/~porterka/Porter-2004-EQS-Simplified.pdf
32. Porter, K.A., J.L. Beck, and R.V. Shaikhutdinov, 2002. Sensitivity of building loss estimates to major uncertain variables. Earthquake Spectra, 18 (4), 719-743, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2002-Sensitivity.pdf
33. Porter, K.A., A.S. Kiremidjian, and J.S. LeGrue, 2001. Assembly-based vulnerability of buildings and its use in performance evaluation. Earthquake Spectra, 17 (2), 291-312, http://keithp.caltech.edu/Porter et al (2001) ABV Spectra.pdf
Conferences, Workshops, Seminars, and Trade Journals
34. Porter, K., and I.H. Cho, 2013. Characterizing a building class via key features and index buildings for class-level vulnerability functions. 11th International Conference on Structural Safety and Reliability (ICOSSAR). June 16-20, 2013, New York.
35. Noh, H.Y., K. Porter, D. Lallemant, and A. Kiremidjian, 2013 (expected). Treatment of uncertainties in the GEM vulnerability functions. 11th International Conference on Structural Safety and Reliability. June 16-20, 2013, New York.
36. Porter, K.A., L. Jones, S. Ross, J. Borrero, J. Bwarie, D. Dykstra, E.L. Geist, L. Johnson, S. Kirby, K. Long, P. Lynett, K. Miller, C. Mortensen, S. Perry, G. Plumlee, C. Real, L. Richie, H.K. Thio, A. Wein, P. Whitmore, R. Wilson, N. Wood, 2013 (expected). USGS Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario. Proc. ASCE COPRI Ports ’13, Seattle WA Aug 25-29, 2013
37. Porter, K.A., 2013. Safe enough? How the building code protects our lives but not our cities. Cherishing Our Past, Preserving Our Future; Phi Beta Kappa Northern California Association 26th Asilomar Conference February 15-18, 2012
38. Porter, K.A., 2012. Is the code giving us the performance we (will) want? Invited plenary presentation to SEAOSC Buildings at Risk, Los Angeles CA, 11 Oct 2012
39. Porter, K.A., 2012. ROVER for End-to-End Seismic Risk Management. SEAOSC Buildings at Risk, Los Angeles CA, 11 Oct 2012
40. Porter, K.A., and M. Latham, 2012. Business continuity risk to data centers in earthquakes. Proc., Contingency Planning and Management Conference & Expo West, Grapevine TX 10 Oct 2012
41. Porter, K.A., and M. Latham, 2012. Can your data center survive an earthquake? How to know your risk. Datacenterknowledge.com, October 10, 2012. www.datacenterknowledge.com/archives/2012/10/10/managing-seismic-risk-of-downtime/
42. Farokhnia, K., and K.A. Porter, 2012. Estimating the non-structural seismic vulnerability of building categories. Proc. 15th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Lisbon, 24-28 Sep 2012, paper number 3900, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Farokhnia-2012-15WCEE-Nonstructural.pdf
43. Porter, K.A., K. Farokhnia, I.H. Cho, T. Rossetto, I. Ioannou, D. Grant, K. Jaiswal, D. Wald, D. D’Ayala, A. Meslem, E. So, A.S. Kiremidjian & H.Y. Noh, 2012. Global vulnerability estimation methods for the Global Earthquake Model. Proc. 15th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Lisbon, 24-28 Sep 2012, paper number 4523, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2012-15WCEE-GEM-Vulnerability.pdf
44. Porter, K.A., and K. Ramer, 2012. A performance-based earthquake engineering method to estimate downtime in critical facilities. Proc. 15th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Lisbon, 24-28 Sep 2012, paper number 4504, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2012-15WCEE-Downtime.pdf
45. Bevington, J., R. Eguchi, C. Huyck, H. Crowley, F. Dell’Acqua, G. Iannelli, C. Jordan, J. Morley, M. Wieland, S. Parolai, M. Pittore, K. Porter, K. Saito, P. Sarabandi, A. Wright, and M. Wyss, 2012. Exposure data development for the Global Earthquake Model: inventory data capture tools. Proc. 15th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Lisbon, 24-28 Sep 2012
46. Jaiswal, K., W. Aspinall, D. Perkins, D. Wald and K. Porter, 2012. Use of expert judgment elicitation to estimation seismic vulnerability of selected building types. Proc. 15th World Conference in Earthquake Engineering, Lisbon, 24-28 Sep 2012 (paper # 4542)
47. Porter, K.A., 2012. LFRD, PBEE-1, and PBEE-2: Why do performance-based earthquake engineering and where is it headed? A professional lecture for Principles of Seismic Design Denver CO, Tuesday 17 July 2012
48. Corotis, R.B., H. Bonstrom, and K. Porter, 2012. Overcoming public and political challenges for natural hazard risk investment decisions. Invited keynote, Proc. Asian-Pacific Symposium on Structural Reliability and its Applications (APSSRA12), Singapore, 23-25 May 2012
49. Porter, K.A., and K. Cobeen, 2012. Informing a retrofit ordinance: a soft-story case study. Proc. 2012 Structures Congress, Chicago IL, March 29-31, 2012.
50. Porter, K., B. Bell, and N. Pereira, 2011. Free, fast building seismic safety inspection software for smartphones. Building Safety Journal Online, 56-62, December 2011, International Code Council, http://www.bsj-digital.com/bsj/201112?pg=56#pg56
51. Porter, K.A., and C. Scawthorn, 2011. The Tohoku Earthquake and its implications for the US. International Insurance Society 47th Annual Seminar, Toronto, 22 Jun 2011.
52. Porter, K.A., 2011. Development and limitations of next-generation performance-based earthquake engineering in catastrophe risk models. The 2nd Conference (IDRiM2011) of the International Society for Integrated Disaster Risk Management. 15 July 2011, University of Southern California, Los Angeles CA.
53. Porter, K.A., 2011. ShakeOut, Tohoku & their implications for Canada. National Insurance Conference of Canada, Vancouver, 27 Sep 2011.
54. Porter, K.A., 2011. Community Action Plan for Seismic Safety – the soft-story program. SEAOSC Buildings at Risk Earthquake Loss Reduction Summit, Putting Earthquake Loss Mitigation Solutions into Practice. Structural Engineers Association of Southern California, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, 13 Oct 2011.
55. Porter, K.A., 2010. Rapid Observation of Vulnerability and Estimation of Risk (ROVER): end-to-end seismic risk management software. Proc. 9th US/10th Canadian Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Toronto Canada, 25 – 29 July 2010, paper 1781, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2010-9USN10CCEE-ROVER.pdf
56. Porter, K.A., 2010. The ShakeOut earthquake scenario: from the scientist’s perspective to the citizen's. American Association for the Advancement of Science Annual Meeting, San Diego, 18 – 22 Feb 2010, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2010-AAAS-ShakeOut.pdf
57. Porter, K.A. and K. Cobeen, 2009. Loss estimates for large soft-story woodframe buildings in San Francisco. Proc. ATC & SEI 2009 Conference on Improving the Seismic Performance of Existing Buildings and Other Structures. Dec 9-11, 2009, San Francisco, CA.
58. Porter, K.A., S. Hellman, T. McLane, and C. Carlisle, 2009. End-to-end seismic risk management software. Proc. ATC & SEI 2009 Conference on Improving the Seismic Performance of Existing Buildings and Other Structures. Dec 9-11, 2009, San Francisco, CA.
59. Samant, L.D., K. Porter, K. Cobeen, L.T. Tobin, L. Kornfield, H. Seligson, S. Alejandrino, and J. Kidd, 2009. Mitigating San Francisco’s soft-story building problem. Proc. ATC & SEI 2009 Conference on Improving the Seismic Performance of Existing Buildings and Other Structures. Dec 9-11, 2009, San Francisco, CA.
60. Porter, K.A., S. Hellman, D. Wald, K.W. Lin, 2009. Free, open source, end-to-end seismic risk management software. SSA 2009 Annual Meeting, Monterey, CA, 8 Apr 2009.
61. Porter, K.A., 2008. The ShakeOut scenario, a hypothetical M7.8 Southern San Andreas Fault earthquake. Structure Magazine, December 2008, http://www.structuremag.org/article.aspx?articleID=812
62. Porter, K.A., 2008. Fatality models for PAGER. SSA 2008 Annual Meeting, Santa Fe, NM, 17 Apr 2008
63. Porter, K.A., 2008. Tools of the Trade: AGORA, OpenRisk, ROVER, and other Open Source Efforts. National Earthquake Conference, Apr 22-26, 2008, Westin Hotel, Seattle WA
64. Porter, K.A., 2008. Mitigation Saves: FEMA Spent $3.5B and Saved $14B. National Earthquake Conference, Apr 22-26, 2008, Westin Hotel, Seattle WA
65. Porter K.A. and C Scawthorn, 2007. OpenRisk: open-source risk software and access for the insurance industry. 1st International Conference on Asian Catastrophe Insurance (ICACI), Kyoto University, Dec 3-4, 2007. http://spot.colorado.edu/~porterka/Porter-2007-ICACI-OpenRisk.pdf
66. Porter, K.A., 2007. OpenRisk: open-source risk estimation software. Natural Hazards Center 2007 Annual Hazards Workshop, July 8-11, 2007. http://www.risk-agora.org/pubs/Porter-2007-Boulder-OpenRisk.pdf
67. Porter, K.A., D. Wald, T. Allen, and K. Jaiswal, 2007. An empirical relationship between fatalities and instrumental MMI. 1st International Workshop on Disaster Casualties, Kyoto University, Nov 28-29, 2007. http://spot.colorado.edu/~porterka/Porter-2007-Empirical-PAGER.pdf
68. Mosqueda, G., K.A. Porter, J. O’Connor, and P. McAnany, 2007. Damage to engineered buildings and bridges in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. Proc. SEI Structures Congress, May 16-19, 2007, Long Beach CA. http://www.succeednow.org/asce07/Program/Abstracts/1135_MCEER-Katrina_Abstract_ASCE2007_(1).pdf [11 Jul 2007], http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Mosqueda-2007-SEI-Katrina.pdf [11 Jul 2007]
69. Porter, K.A., R. Hamburger, and R. Kennedy, 2007. Practical Development and Application of Fragility Functions. Proc. SEI Structures Congress, May 16-19, 2007, Long Beach CA. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2007-SEI-fragility.pdf
70. Porter, K.A., J. Mitrani-Reiser, J.L. Beck , and J. Ching, 2006. Smarter structures: real-time loss estimation for instrumented buildings. Proc. 8th National Conference on Earthquake Engineering, paper 1236, 18-22 April 2006, San Francisco, CA.
71. J. Mitrani-Reiser, C. Haselton, C. Goulet, K. Porter, J. Beck, and G. Deierlein, 2006. Evaluation of the seismic performance of a code-conforming reinforced-concrete frame building - Part II: loss estimation. Proc. 8th National Conference on Earthquake Engineering, 18-22 April 2006, San Francisco, CA.
72. Mosqueda, G. and K.A. Porter, 2006. Preliminary conclusions: assessing damage to engineered buildings in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. Structural Engineer, February 2006, 20-26, http://spot.colorado.edu/~porterka/
73. Porter, K.A., C.R. Scawthorn, and J.L. Beck, 2005. Cost-effectiveness of stronger woodframe buildings. Proc. International Symposium on Earthquake Engineering Commemorating the Tenth Anniversary of the 1995 Kobe Earthquake (ISEE 2005), Kobe, Japan, January 13-16, 2005. http://keithp.caltech.edu/Porter et al (2005) ISEE.pdf
74. F. Jalayer, J.L. Beck, K.A. Porter, and J.F. Hall, 2005. Application of the subset simulation method in predicting the seismic response of an existing RC frame structure. Proc 9th International Conference on Structural Safety and Reliability, Rome, Italy, June 2005.
75. J.Y. Ching, J.L. Beck, and K.A. Porter, 2005. Bayesian state and parameter estimation using particle filters. Proc 9th International Conference on Structural Safety and Reliability, Rome, Italy, June 2005.
76. Porter, K.A. and J.L. Beck, 2004. Simplified PBEE to estimate economic seismic risk for buildings. Performance-Based Seismic Design [PBSD] -- Concepts and Implementation, Bled, Slovenia, June 28-July 1, 2004, Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research (PEER) Center, Richmond, CA
77. Porter, K.A., J.L. Beck, and R.V. Shaikhutdinov, 2004. Simplified estimation of economic seismic risk for buildings. Proc. 13th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Vancouver, BC, August 1-6, 2004, Paper No. 1755.
78. Shaikhutdinov, R.V., J.L. Beck, and K.A. Porter, 2004. Comparative study of different methods of structural damage assessment. Proc. 13th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Vancouver, BC, August 1-6, 2004, Paper No. 1678
79. Jalayer, F., J.L. Beck, K.A. Porter, and J.F. Hall, 2004. Effects of ground motion uncertainty on predicting the response of an existing RC frame structure. Proc. 13th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Vancouver, BC, August 1-6, 2004, Paper No. 2007
80. Ching, J.Y., J.L. Beck, and K.A. Porter, 2004. Application of Bayesian state estimation in real-time loss estimation of instrumented buildings. Proc 13th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Vancouver, BC, August 1-6, 2004, Paper No. 1092.
81. Ching, J.Y., J.L. Beck, and K.A. Porter, 2004. Real-time Bayesian state estimation of dynamical systems using stochastic simulation. Proc. 9th ASCE Joint Specialty Conference on Probabilistic Mechanics and Structural Reliability. Albuquerque NM. July 2004.
82. Ching, J.Y., J.L. Beck, and K.A. Porter, 2004. Real-time Bayesian damage detection for uncertain dynamical systems. Proc. 17th ASCE Engineering Mechanics Conference (EM2004), June 13-16, 2004, University of Delaware, Newark, DE
83. Porter, K.A., 2003. An overview of PEER’s performance-based earthquake engineering methodology. Proc. Ninth International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering (ICASP9) July 6-9, 2003, San Francisco, CA. Civil Engineering Risk and Reliability Association (CERRA), http://spot.colorado.edu/~porterka/
84. Beck, J.L., K.A. Porter, and R.V. Shaikhutdinov, 2003. Simplified estimation of life-cycle costs. Proc. 3rd International IABMAS Workshop on Life-Cycle Cost Analysis and Design of Infrastructure Systems, Lausanne, Switzerland, March 2003, published as D.M. Frangipol, ed., 2004. Life-cycle Performance of Deteriorating Structures: Assessment, Design, and Management. American Society of Civil Engineers, Reston VA, http://www.worldcat.org/oclc/53285153
85. Porter, K.A., 2002. Learning from earthquakes: a survey of surveys. Keynote paper, EERI Invitational Workshop: An Action Plan to Develop Earthquake Damage and Loss Data Protocols, September 19th and 20th, 2002, Doubletree Hotel, Pasadena, California, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, Oakland, CA, http://keithp.caltech.edu/Lfe.htm
86. Beck, J.L., K.A. Porter, R.V. Shaikhutdinov, 2002. Accounting for seismic risk in financial analysis of property investment. NZSEE 2002 Conference, Napier, New Zealand, March, 2002
87. Porter, K.A. and A.S. Kiremidjian, 2001. Verifying performance-based design objectives using assembly-based vulnerability. Structural Safety and Reliability, ICOSSAR 2001, Newport Beach, California, USA, June 17-22 2001, A.A. Balkema, Lisse, the Netherlands, http://spot.colorado.edu/~porterka/
88. Porter, K.A., A.S. Kiremidjian, J.G. LeGrue, and S.A. King, 2000. A building damage estimation model for business recovery. Proc., 12th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, January 30 – February 4, 2000, New Zealand Earthquake Commission, Auckland, NZ, paper 2821
89. Scawthorn, C., K.A. Porter, and G.S. Johnson, 1999. Seismic reliability assessment of critical lifeline equipment. Proc. 5th U.S. Conference on Lifeline Earthquake Engineering, Seattle Washington, August 12-14, 1999, American Society of Civil Engineers, Reston, VA
90. Porter, K.A., and C. Scawthorn, 1998. Appropriate seismic reliability for critical equipment systems – an approach based on regional analysis of financial and life loss. Proceedings of Seminar on Seismic Design, Retrofit, and Performance of Nonstructural Components, ATC 29-1, Applied Technology Council, Redwood City CA, 393-421
91. Porter, K.A., C. Scawthorn, C. Taylor, and N. Blais, 1998. Appropriate Seismic Reliability for Critical Equipment Systems: Recommendations Based on Regional Analysis of Financial and Life Loss. Technical Report MCEER-98-0016, MCEER, Buffalo, NY, 104 pp.
92. Porter, K.A., A.R. Scott, M. Johnson, C. Scawthorn, and H. Ryland, 1993. Training local officials in rapid visual screening of seismically hazardous buildings. Proceedings of the 1993 National Earthquake Conference: Earthquake Hazard Reduction in the Central and Eastern United States: A Time for Examination and Action; Memphis, Tennessee, May 2-5, 1993. Central United States Earthquake Consortium, Memphis TN, 1993, Volume I, 675-684.
93. Porter, K.A., C. Scawthorn, D.G. Honegger, T.D. O’Rourke, and F. Blackburn, 1992. Performance of water supply pipelines in liquefied soil. Proc. 4th US-Japan Workshop on Earthquake Disaster Prevention for Lifeline Systems, Los Angeles, August 19-21, 1991, Eguchi, R.T., ed., National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg, MD, 3-17.
94. Friedman, L., K.A. Porter, and C. Scawthorn, 1992. Use of logic tree analysis for earthquake emergency planning in critical facilities. Proceedings of the Second Conference on Earthquake Hazards in the Eastern San Francisco Bay Area; California State University, Hayward, March 25-29, 1992. Borchardt, G. et al., eds. California Department of Conservation, Division of Mines and Geology, Sacramento, CA, 469-473
95. Scawthorn, C., K.A. Porter, M.M. Khater, D. Seidel, D. Ballantyne, H.T. Taylor, R.D. Darragh, and C. Ng, 1992. Utility performance aspects, liquefaction study, Marina and Sullivan Marsh areas, San Francisco, California. Proceedings from the Fourth Japan-US Workshop on Earthquake Resistant Design of Lifeline Facilities and Countermeasures for Soil Liquefaction; Tokai University Pacific Center, Honolulu, May 27-29, 1992, Report NCEER 92-0019. Hamada, M. and O'Rourke, T.D., eds., National Center for Earthquake Engineering Research, State University of New York, Buffalo, NY, volume I, 317-333.
96. Scawthorn, C.R., K.A. Porter, D.P. O’Sullivan, and S.K. Harris, 1992. Consequence analyses for the Cities of Fremont, Hayward, and San Leandro. Proceedings of the Second Conference on Earthquake Hazards in the Eastern San Francisco Bay Area; California State University, Hayward, March 25-29, 1992. Borchardt, G. et al., eds., California Department of Conservation, Division of Mines and Geology, Sacramento, CA, 513-517.
Reports, Book Chapters, and Other Publications
97. Porter, K., K. Farokhnia, D. Vamvatsikos, and I. Cho, 2015. Analytical Derivation of Seismic Vulnerability Functions for Building Classes and Nonstructural Components, Emphasizing Highrise Buildings. Global Vulnerability Consortium, Pavia Italy, 64 pp., http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2015-GVC-Vulnerability.pdf
98. Porter, K., W. Byers, D. Dykstra, A. Lim, P. Lynett, J. Ratliff, C. Scawthorn, A. Wein, and R. Wilson, 2013. The SAFRR tsunami scenario—physical damage in California. Chap. E in Ross, S.L., and Jones, L.M., eds., The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario. U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2013–1170, 168 p., http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1170/e/.
99. Ross, S.L., L.M. Jones, K. Miller, K.A. Porter, A. Wein, R.I. Wilson, B. Bahng, A. Barberopoulou, J.C. Borrero, D.M. Brosnan, J.T. Bwarie, E.L. Geist, L.A. Johnson, S.H. Kirby, W.R. Knight, K. Long, P. Lynett, C.E. Mortensen, D.J. Nicolsky, S.C. Perry, G.S. Plumlee, C.R. Real, K. Ryan, E. Suleimani, H. Thio, V.V. Titov, P.M. Whitmore, and N.J. Wood, 2013. SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario—executive summary and introduction. U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2013–1170–A, in Ross, S.L., and Jones, L.M., eds., The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario. U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2013–1170, 17 p., http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1170/a/
100. Cho, I.H. and K.A. Porter, 2013. Three Techniques for Modeling Building Classes using Moment Matching. SESM 13-01, Structural Engineering and Structural Mechanics Program, Department of Civil Environmental and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado Boulder, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Cho-2013-SESM-building-classes.pdf
101. Olsen, A.H. and K.A. Porter, 2011. On the Contribution of Reconstruction Labor Wages and Material Prices to Demand Surge. SESM-11-1, Department of Civil Environmental and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado at Boulder, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Olsen-2011-SESM-Demand-Surge.pdf
102. Porter, K., A. Wein, C. Alpers, A. Baez, P. Barnard, J. Carter, A. Corsi, J. Costner, D. Cox, T. Das, M. Dettinger, J. Done, C. Eadie, M. Eymann, J. Ferris, P. Gunturi, M. Hughes, R. Jarrett, L. Johnson, H. Dam Le-Griffin, D. Mitchell, S. Morman, P. Neiman, A. Olsen, S. Perry, G. Plumlee, M. Ralph, D. Reynolds, A. Rose, K. Schaefer, J. Serakos, W. Siembieda, J. Stock, D. Strong, I. Sue Wing, A. Tang, P. Thomas, K. Topping, and C. Wills, 2011. Overview of the ARkStorm Scenario. U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2010-1312, 183 pp. and appendices, http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2010/1312/
103. Olsen, A.H. and K.A. Porter, 2010. What We Know about Demand Surge. Department of Civil Environmental and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado Boulder, SESM-10-1, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Olsen-2010-CU-WWKADS.pdf
104. Porter, K.A., H. Ishida, K. Torisawa, and M. Miyamura, 2010. Enhancing Nonstructural Fragility Analysis for Essential Facilities. Consortium of Universities for Research in Earthquake Engineering, Richmond CA, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Porter-2010-CK7-Downtime.pdf
105. K.A. Porter and C. Scawthorn, 2009. Development of Open Source Seismic Risk Modeling Framework. Final Technical Report, award 07HQAG0002, US Geological Survey, Reston VA, http://earthquake.usgs.gov/research/external/
106. K. S. Jaiswal, D. J. Wald, P. S. Earle, K. A. Porter, M. Hearne, 2011. Earthquake casualty models within the USGS Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system. In R. Spence, E. So, and C. Scawthorn, eds, Human Casualties in Earthquakes. Advances in Natural and Technological Hazards Research Volume 29, 2011, pp 83-94
107. Perry, S., D. Cox, L. Jones, R. Bernknopf, J. Goltz, K. Hudnut, D. Mileti, D. Ponti, K. Porter, M. Reichle, H. Seligson, K. Shoaf, J. Treiman, and A. Wein, 2008. The ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario—a Story that Southern Californians are Writing. US Geological Survey Circular 1324 and California Geological Survey Special Report 207. US Geological Survey, Reston VA. http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/1324/ [30 May 2008]
108. Jones, L.M., R. Bernknopf, D. Cox, J. Goltz, K. Hudnut, D. Mileti, S. Perry, D. Ponti, K. Porter, M. Reichle, H. Seligson, K. Shoaf, J. Treiman, and A. Wein, 2008. The ShakeOut Scenario. U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2008-1150 and California Geological Survey Preliminary Report 25, http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2008/1150/ [22 May 2008]
109. Porter, K., R. Graves, E. Reis, and P. Somerville, 2007. Index Woodframe Houses and their Response to Puente Hills Scenario Earthquakes. USC-SCEC/CEA Technical Report #9 for Milestone 3d, Southern California Earthquake Consortium, Los Angeles CA.
110. Mosqueda, G. and K. Porter, 2007. Engineering and Organizational Issues Before, During, and After Hurricane Katrina, Damage to Engineered Buildings and Lifelines from Wind, Storm Surge and Debris in the Wake of Hurricane Katrina. MCEER-07-SP03, MCEER, Buffalo, NY, 54 pp.
111. Hattis, D.B., W.I. Whiddon, Crandell, J.H., M. Greene, W. Koffel, J. McJury, K. Porter, and K. Powell, 2007. A Methodology for Identifying, Discussing, and Analyzing the Costs and Benefits of Code Changes that Impact Housing. A Report for US Department of Housing and Urban Development. Building Technology Incorporated, Silver Spring, MD. 107 pp. http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Hattis-2007-Code-BCA.pdf
112. Rose, A., K. Porter, N. Dash, J. Bouabid, C. Huyck, J.C. Whitehead, D. Shaw, R.T. Eguchi, C. Taylor, T.R. McLane, L.T. Tobin, P.T. Ganderton, D. Godschalk, A.S. Kiremidjian, K. Tierney and C. Taylor West, 2006. Benefit-Cost Analysis of FEMA Hazard Mitigation Grants. No 06-02, Working Papers from Department of Economics, Appalachian State University. http://econ.appstate.edu/RePEc/pdf/wp0602.pdf.
113. Porter, K.A., and C Scawthorn, 2007. Open-Source Risk Estimation Software. Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC), Los Angeles, CA, http://www.risk-agora.org/archive.htm
114. Porter, K.A., S Krishnan, and X. Xu, 2006. Analysis of Simultaneous Operational Failure of Critical Facilities Due to Earthquake, for a California Utility. Report EERL 2006-01, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, http://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechEERL:EERL-2006-01
115. (NIST) National Institute of Standards and Technology, 2006. Performance of Physical Structures in Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita: A Reconnaissance Report. NIST TN-1476. Gaithersburg, MD.
116. Ganderton, P.T., L. Bourque, N. Dash, R. Eguchi, D. Godschalk, C. Heider, E. Mittler, K. Porter, A. Rose, L.T. Tobin, and C. Taylor, 2006. Mitigation generates savings of four to one and enhances community resilience: MMC releases study on savings from mitigation. Natural Hazards Observer, 30 (4) March 2006 http://www.colorado.edu/hazards/o/mar06/mar06a.html [09 Mar 2006]
117. (NIBS) National Institute of Building Sciences, 2005. Natural Hazard Mitigation Saves: An Independent Study to Assess the Future Savings from Mitigation Activities, Washington, DC.
118. Porter, K.A., J.L. Beck, J.Y. Ching, J. Mitrani-Reiser, M. Miyamura, A. Kusaka, T. Kudo, K. Ikkatai, and Y. Hyodo, 2004. Real-Time Loss Estimation for Instrumented Buildings, Report EERL 2004-08, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, http://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechEERL2004-08
119. Porter, K.A., 2004. A Survey of Bridge Practitioners to Relate Damage to Closure, Report EERL 2004-07, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, http://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechEERL:EERL-2004-07
120. Ching, J., J.L. Beck, K.A. Porter, and R.V. Shaikhutdinov, 2004. Real-time Bayesian State Estimation of Uncertain Dynamical Systems, Report EERL 2004-01, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, http://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechEERL:2004-01
121. Porter, K.A., 2003. Evaluating Premium Incentives for the California Earthquake Authority, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA
122. (EERI) Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, 2003. Securing Society Against Catastrophic Earthquake Losses, A Research and Outreach Plan in Earthquake Engineering, Oakland, CA, 76 pp., http://www.eeri.org/research/Researchplan01-03.pdf
123. Ching, J.Y., K.A. Porter, and J.L. Beck, 2003. Uncertainty Propagation and Feature Selection for Loss Estimation in Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering, EERL Report No. 2003-03, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA
124. Porter, K.A., 2002. Life-safety risk criteria in seismic decisions. Acceptable Risk Processes: Lifelines and Natural Hazards, Monograph No. 21, C.E. Taylor and E. VanMarcke, eds., American Society of Civil Engineers, Technical Council for Lifeline Earthquake Engineering, Reston, VA, http://spot.colorado.edu/~porterka/
125. Porter, K.A., 2002. Seismic vulnerability. Chapter 21, Handbook of Earthquake Engineering, W.F. Chen and C.R. Scawthorn, eds., CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL
126. Porter, K.A., J.L. Beck, and R.V. Shaikhutdinov, 2002. Investigation of Sensitivity of Building Loss Estimates to Major Uncertain Variables for the Van Nuys Testbed, PEER Report 2002/03, Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center, Richmond, CA
127. Porter, K.A., J.L. Beck, H.A. Seligson, C.R. Scawthorn, L.T. Tobin, and T. Boyd, 2002. Improving Loss Estimation for Woodframe Buildings, Consortium of Universities for Research in Earthquake Engineering, Richmond, CA, 136 pp., http://resolver.caltech.edu/caltechEERL:2002.EERL-2002-01 (main report) and http://resolver.caltech.edu/caltechEERL:2002.EERL-2002-02 (appendices)
128. Beck, J.L., K.A. Porter, R. Shaikhutdinov, S. K. Au, T. Moroi, Y. Tsukada, and M. Masuda, 2002. Impact of Seismic Risk on Lifetime Property Values, Final Report, Consortium of Universities for Research in Earthquake Engineering, Richmond, CA, http://resolver.caltech.edu/caltechEERL:2002.EERL-2002-04
129. Porter, K.A., C. Scawthorn, C. Taylor, N. Blais, 1998. Appropriate Seismic Reliability for Critical Equipment Systems: Recommendations Based on Regional Analysis of Financial and Life Loss, MCEER-98-0016, Multidisciplinary Center for Earthquake Engineering Research, State Univ. of New York, Buffalo, NY, 104 pp.
130. T. Larsen, K.A. Porter, M. Zadeh, C. Van Anne, and C. Scawthorn, 1996. Impact of Hurricane Andrew on Performance, Interaction, and Recovery of Lifelines. Grant BCS-9224819, National Science Foundation, Washington, DC, 257 pp, http://www.sparisk.com/pubs/Larsen-1996-Andrew-lifelines.pdf
131. Porter, K.A., G.S. Johnson, M.M. Zadeh, C.R. Scawthorn, and S.J. Eder, 1993. Seismic Vulnerability of Equipment in Critical Facilities: Life-Safety and Operational Consequences, NCEER-93-0022, Multidisciplinary Center for Earthquake Engineering Research, State Univ. of New York, Buffalo, NY, 364 pp.
132. Scawthorn, C.R., K.A. Porter, and F.T. Blackburn, 1992. Loma Prieta, California Earthquake of October 17, 1989, strong ground motion and ground failure, marina district: performance of emergency-response services after the earthquake. Loma Prieta, California Earthquake of October 17, 1989: Marina District, USGS Professional Paper 1551-F. O'Rourke, Thomas D, ed., US Government Printing Office, Washington DC, F195-F215.