About

According to consequentialism, an agent's moral obligations depend on the consequences of his or her actions. Some consequentialists are called objective consequentialists. They believe that agents are morally obligated to do what will maximize utility. Or, in other words, they believe that agents are morally obligated to do what will, in fact, have the best consequences. Other consequentialists, however, reject objective consequentialism in favor of what is called subjective consequentialism. Although there are numerous versions of subjective consequentialism, one version says that agents should do what will maximize expected utility, where the expected utility of an agent's action is a function of three things, (i) his or her beliefs about what consequences that action could have, (ii) his or her beliefs about how likely it is to have those consequences, and (iii) his or her beliefs about how good or bad those consequences would be.

Because this website can help subjective consequentialists decide how to act in various situations, I like to think of it as the subjective consequentialist's dream come true. The primary purpose of this website, however, is to help you understand how subjective consequentialism works by taking you through the process a subjective consequentialist might go through to decide how to act in a particular situation. If you are interested in checking out how this theory compares to other moral theories, I would encourage you to click the "Related Sites" tab at the top of the page.

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Instructions

To begin, indicate what you are trying to decide, and click 'Done'.

Next, you'll be asked what your options are. List at least two options. If you would like to list more than two options, click 'More options, please.' You may list up to five options, and if you'd ever like to remove an option you've added, click the green 'X' on the right side of the input box associated with it. Once you've listed all the options you'd like to list, click 'Done'.

Next, you'll be asked to indicate how things might turn out if you choose option A. Here, you'll want to describe up to five different ways the world might turn out if you perform A. It is important to note that you aren't just listing up to five different consequences that might result from your performing option A. Instead, you're listing up to five different ways the world might go from that point forward if you perform option A. So, for example, let's say that there's someone at your door dressed as a police officer, and she asks you if you're hiding any fugitives. As a matter of fact, you are hiding a fugitive, but you'd like to keep that a secret. In this case, one of your options is to lie by telling this person that you aren't hiding any fugitives. How might things turn out if you choose to lie? Here are some answers you might give:

  • The person at my door accepts my answer and leaves.
  • The person at my door doesn't accept my answer, so she looks around the house. Fortunately, she doesn't find the fugitive.
  • The person at my door doesn't accept my answer, so she looks around the house. Unfortunately, she finds the fugitive and drags him off. He's sentenced to twenty years in prison.
  • The person at my door doesn't accept my answer, so she looks around the house. Unfortunately, she finds the fugitive and drags him off. Additionally, she drags me off too for aiding and abetting the prisoner. The prisoner is sentenced to twenty years in prison, and I am sentenced to ten years in prison.
  • The person at my door doesn't accept my answer, so she looks around the house. Unfortunately, she finds the fugitive. Even more unfortunately, she isn't a police office at all but a hitwoman who kills us both on the spot.

Obviously, there are many other ways that things might turn out if you lie, but for our purposes, it is enough to list the consequences your lying is most likely to have. Additionally, I should note that although you can give more detailed descriptions of how things might turn out if you lie than I have above, you need not. What's important is just that your descriptions of how things might turn out if you lie capture the main differences between the various ways the world might go if you choose to lie. For more information about how to answer this question, click here.

After indicating how things might turn out if you choose option A, click 'Done'. You'll then be asked to do the same with respect to each option you've listed. Once you've described, for each of your options, the various outcomes it might have, you'll be asked to assign each of those outcomes a subjective probability and a subjective value. The subjective probability you assign to each outcome can be any rational number, x, where 0 ≤ x ≤ 1. Moreover, the subjective probabilities you assign to the potential outcomes of each option should sum to 1. This is just to assume that your list of potential outcomes for each option is exhaustive. For help assigning subjective probabilities to outcomes, click here.

The subjective value you assign to each outcome can be any rational number. For help assigning subjective values to outcomes, click here.

After assigning a subjective probability and a subjective value to an outcome, click 'Done' to move on to the next one. If at any point you would like to hide the subjective probability and subjective value you assigned to an outcome, click 'Hide'. To unhide them, click on the outcome to which they were assigned.

After you assign a subjective probability and a subjective value to all of the outcomes and click 'Done', a button will appear. Clicking that button will reveal which of your options you are morally obligated to perform according to subjective consequentialism. It will also give you the chance to look at the expected utility of each of your options. To see how the expected utility of an option is calculated, click here.

I should also mention that if at any point you would like to change your answer to an earlier question, you are welcome to do that. Note, however, that if you change your answer to a question after you've already clicked the button at the bottom of the page to determine which action subjective consequentialism requires you to perform, you may have to click that button again to reevaluate which action subjective consequentialism requires you to perform.

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Help

What would you like help with?
Options
Outcomes
Subjective Probability
Subjective Value

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Options

Let's say that you're planning to move to a new town and are wondering where you should live. Your options are the different places you could live. For example, you might list the following options:

  • Camp on public land
  • Rent an inexpensive apartment
  • Rent a more expensive apartment
  • Buy an inexpensive house
  • Buy a more expensive house

This list isn't exhaustive or particularly precise. For example, even if you decide to buy an inexpensive house, you'll presumably want to determine which particular inexpensive house you should buy.

In some cases, an imprecise list like this one is all you need. In other cases, however, it might make more sense to make a more precise list. For example, if you are deciding which of two houses to buy, you should list those as your options.

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Outcomes

How might things turn out if you perform that action?

In asking how things might turn out if you perform a certain action, I am not interested in the particular consequences this action might have but rather the different ways the world might turn out if you were to perform this action.

So, for example, if you are considering asking someone on a date, you might give the following responses to this question:

  • S/he says no and makes fun of me to his/her friends.
  • S/he says no but is nice about it.
  • S/he says yes, and we go on a date, but we don't hit it off.
  • S/he says yes, and we go on a date. I fall head over heels for him/her only to be dumped later on.
  • S/he says yes, and we go on a date. We fall in love with one another and get married.

This list obviously isn't exhaustive. For example, even if you two fall in love with one another and get married, while it's possible that you'll living happily ever after, it's also possible that you'll have a strained marriage or that you'll get divorced.

Even though the list isn't exhaustive, that's okay. What's important is that you list those outcomes the relevant action is most likely to have. In most cases, the less likely outcomes end up cancelling each other out. For example, if you're debating whether to go out to buy ice cream or just sit at home and eat the ice cream you already have, the fact that you could get hit and killed on your way to the store probably isn't worth mentioning when you list how things might turn out if go out to buy ice cream. The reason is that there's also a non-zero chance that something very good will happen to you if you go out to buy ice cream. For example, you might meet the person of your dreams, or you might find a winning lottery ticket on the ground.

All this is to say that you should focus on listing the most likely outcomes of the relevant action. Later on, when I ask you to indicate how likely you think these outcomes are to occur given your perform of the relevant action, we're going to pretend that this list is exhaustive and therefore that one of the outcomes you've listed is certain to occur given the relevant action.

Lastly, I should mention that you'll want to be thinking not only about how your performing this action will affect you, but also about how your performing this action will affect others. When I ask you to indicate how valuable you think a particular outcome is, you'll want to give me the value of the outcome in general, which is a function of how valuable you think it is for everyone affected by it, not just yourself.

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Subjective Probability

The subjective probability of an outcome depends on how likely you think that outcome is to occur given the relevant action, and it should be expressed as a decimal, x, where 0 ≤ x ≤ 1. If you are sure that an outcome will not occur given the relevant action, then you should list the subjective probability of that outcome as '0'. Conversely, if you are sure that an outcome will occur given the relevant action, then you should list the subjective probability of that outcome as '1'. Usually, the subjective probability of a set of consequences will be between 0 and 1.

So, for example, if you think you can get away with a lie three-fourths (or 75%) of the time, then the subjective probability you should ascribe to your getting away with a particular lie is '.75'. If, however, you think you can get away with a lie only one-fourth (or 25%) of the time, then the subjective probability you should ascribe to your getting away with a particular lie is '.25'.

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Subjective Value

The subjective value of an outcome depends on how valuable you think that outcome is. To help you answer that question, I'd encourage you to imagine an outcome to which you'd ascribe the value '0'. Then, determine whether the outcome in question is better or worse than that and how much better or worse it is.

So, for example, you might ascribe a subjective value of '0' to sitting around doing nothing, a subjective value of '-10' to stubbing your toe on a piece of furniture, and a subjective value of '30' to watching your favorite television show. This would be appropriate if you think that stubbing your toe is one-third as bad as watching your favorite television show is good.

Note that the subjective value of an outcome isn't just that outcome's immediate value for you; it's that outcome's ultimate value for everyone involved. So, if you would ascribe a subjective value of '30' to your watching your favorite television show by yourself early in the evening, you might ascribe a subjective value of '45' to your watching your favorite television show with someone else who likes it half as much as you do. Moreover, you might ascribe a subjective value of '15' to your watching it by yourself late in the evening, when your doing so will result in your being especially tired the following morning.

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How does the expected utility calculator work?

According to one version of subjective consequentialism, agents should do whichever of their options will maximize expected utility, where the expected utility of an agent's option is a function of three things, (i) his or her beliefs about what consequences that option could have, (ii) how likely it is to have those consequences, and (iii) his or her beliefs about how good or bad those consequences would be.

To illustrate, let's imagine that you're considering performing some option we'll call A. Moreover, let's assume that you think A will have one of three outcomes. We'll call these A1, A2, and A3. The expected utilty of A (or "eu(A)"), therefore, is the product of subjective probability you'd assign to A1 (or "sp(A1)") and the subjective value you'd assign to A1 (or "sv(A1)") plus the product of the subjective probability you'd assign to A2 and the subjective value you'd assign to A2 plus the product of the subjective probability you'd assign to A3 and the subjective value you'd assign to A3. In short, eu(A) = [sp(A1) x sv(A1)] + [sp(A2) x sv(A2)] + [sp(A3) x sv(A3)].

The expected utility calculator calculates the expected utility of each of the options you provide and then tells you which of those options has the highest expected utilty. If subjective consequentialism is correct, then this is the action you should perform.

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Feedback

I hope that you've found this site helpful. If you've found any bugs or would like to suggest ways I might improve it, please let me know. You can contact me by clicking here.

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What are you trying to decide?

Done

What are your options?

A

How might things turn out if you perform A?

A1

What is the subjective probability of A1 given A?

What is the subjective value of A1?

Done Hide

A2

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What is the subjective probability of A2 given A?

What is the subjective value of A2?

Done Hide

A3

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What is the subjective probability of A3 given A?

What is the subjective value of A3?

Done Hide

A4

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What is the subjective probability of A4 given A?

What is the subjective value of A4?

Done Hide

A5

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What is the subjective probability of A5 given A?

What is the subjective value of A5?

Done Hide
More consequences, please. Done
 

B

How might things turn out if you perform B?

B1

What is the subjective probability of B1 given B?

What is the subjective value of B1?

Done Hide

B2

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What is the subjective probability of B2 given B?

What is the subjective value of B2?

Done Hide

B3

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What is the subjective probability of B3 given B?

What is the subjective value of B3?

Done Hide

B4

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What is the subjective probability of B4 given B?

What is the subjective value of B4?

Done Hide

B5

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What is the subjective probability of B5 given B?

What is the subjective value of B5?

Done Hide
More consequences, please. Done
 

C

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How might things turn out if you perform C?

C1

What is the subjective probability of C1 given C?

What is the subjective value of C1?

Done Hide

C2

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What is the subjective probability of C2 given C?

What is the subjective value of C2?

Done Hide

C3

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What is the subjective probability of C3 given C?

What is the subjective value of C3?

Done Hide

C4

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What is the subjective probability of C4 given C?

What is the subjective value of C4?

Done Hide

C5

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What is the subjective probability of C5 given C?

What is the subjective value of C5?

Done Hide
More consequences, please. Done
 

D

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How might things turn out if you perform D?

D1

What is the subjective probability of D1 given D?

What is the subjective value of D1?

Done Hide

D2

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What is the subjective probability of D2 given D?

What is the subjective value of D2?

Done Hide

D3

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What is the subjective probability of D3 given D?

What is the subjective value of D3?

Done Hide

D4

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What is the subjective probability of D4 given D?

What is the subjective value of D4?

Done Hide

D5

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What is the subjective probability of D5 given D?

What is the subjective value of D5?

Done Hide
More consequences, please. Done
 

E

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How might things turn out if you perform E?

E1

What is the subjective probability of E1 given E?

What is the subjective value of E1?

Done Hide

E2

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What is the subjective probability of E2 given E?

What is the subjective value of E2?

Done Hide

E3

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What is the subjective probability of E3 given E?

What is the subjective value of E3?

Done Hide

E4

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What is the subjective probability of E4 given E?

What is the subjective value of E4?

Done Hide

E5

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What is the subjective probability of E5 given E?

What is the subjective value of E5?

Done Hide
More consequences, please. Done